In the past few years, we have been preparing to step into the era of electric vehicles, but we are still standing still.
Now the industry is hotly discussing the issue of when electric vehicles will be industrialized. If the topic continues in the next three to five years, then we will have to doubt whether it is necessary to develop electric vehicles at this stage or this century. In the field of traditional fuel vehicles, new energy-saving technologies and alternative fuels have been continuously developed, which will make governments' desire for electric vehicles gradually decrease.
One thing we need to understand is that the current wave of electric vehicles is not the result of the market's own promotion, but the consideration of environmental and energy factors of governments around the world, with obvious administrative intervention. In other words, the original intention of the birth of electric vehicles is to reduce the consumption of non-renewable resources and the harmful effects of exhaust emissions on the environment. If better technology in the field of traditional fuel vehicles can achieve such a long-cherished wish, then the desire of governments of various countries to realize electric vehicles will become less urgent.
Without the government's push, electric vehicles let alone industrialization.
The US government gave up the goal of achieving 1 million electric vehicles by 2015, and the news aroused public uproar in the industry. Because at this time, the relevant government departments of the Chinese government did not express their views on the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012 ~ 2020)" released in July 2012. The two goals of reaching 5 million vehicles in 2020 were shaken.
Of course, the industry generally does not have any confidence in the two goals of 500,000 and 5 million. Statistics show that in 2012, China's total sales of new energy passenger cars totaled around 17,400, doubling the 8159 in 2011. However, considering the factors of various parties, it is unlikely that China's electric vehicle market will grow exponentially in the next two to three years. On the one hand, the consumer psychology is immature, on the other hand, the reliability of the electric car is improving, and the infrastructure construction process is both It cannot support the market size of 500,000 vehicles in 2015.
A survey released by the US Pike Research last year said that in the next five years, the Chinese electric vehicle market will grow at a rate of 60%. As of 2017, China's annual sales of plug-in electric vehicles will exceed 152,000, accounting for 1% of China's total light vehicles. Obviously, the conclusion of this survey is still very positive and optimistic, but it is still far from the expectations of our government for the electric vehicle market.
For the coverage of charging stations and charging piles nationwide alone, the investment will be in the hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars. (In 2009, the State Grid in Shanghai built an area of ​​400 square meters, with only 9 charging parking spaces. The investment of the charging station reached 5.80 million yuan). If the traditional car achieves a similar energy saving and emission reduction effect through technological transformation, then this part of the huge expenditure can be avoided. For financial constraints, private financing is difficult and the large amount of the previous period cannot be seen. In some countries and regions, how much economic benefits will be laid by the charging network, it is necessary to re-examine the development strategy of electric vehicles.
At present, it seems that the increasingly mature unmanned driving technology, combined with the rapid development of the Internet of Vehicles technology, is highly intelligent, not only in terms of safety, but also in energy saving and emission reduction.
Google is not the originator of self-driving technology, but the self-driving system developed by its team has the potential to be on the road. Google's driverless car has no traffic accidents (after being rearranged once) under the computer operation in the 480,000 kilometers before the cumulative driving mileage, and has been qualified to be on the road in California. The maturity of driverless technology is already guaranteed.
In fact, for decades, driverless cars have also been sought after compared to electric cars. As early as the 1939 World Expo in New York, GM exhibited a driverless electric car in its "Futurama" pavilion. Since the 1980s, the Defense Advanced Technology Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has begun to support research on autonomous vehicles. Small-scale driverless car trials have been carried out for some time. For example, in 1997, in an event partially sponsored by the California State Government Agency, several unmanned Buick cars were guided by magnets embedded in the road and drove about 7 miles on the automatic highway near San Diego. . It is understood that in the next few years, GM will penetrate the driverless vehicle market and is expected to formally establish itself in this industry by the end of 2020.
Not only GM, but Volkswagen and Toyota have also deployed troops in the field of unmanned driving and semi-autonomous driving, and have achieved good results. A few years ago, Volkswagen ’s R & D department worked with Stanford University and Volkswagen Electronics Research Laboratories to develop driverless systems. The two driverless cars Passat Junior and Touareg Stanley are Volkswagen's pioneers in the field of driverless technology. Among them, Passat Junior successfully completed the 2007 Urban Challenge "Urban Challenge 2007" and Touareg Stanley completed it in October 2005. The 212-kilometer journey from the Mojave Desert to southern Las Vegas.
Earlier this year, Volkswagen's Audi Motors announced that it will use driverless technology in the 2016 Audi A8. And at this year's CES exhibition, Audi and Lexus compete on the same stage (the main role of the unmanned car exhibited by Lexus is still as an experimental platform), showing its self-driving technology such as its automatic parking system and automatic pilot system. In fact, Audi has made many achievements in the research and development of unmanned driving technology. For example, Audi TTS participated in the 2010 Pikes Peak mountain climbing competition, which is the first "robot car" to participate in this event. Audi has not previously been able to apply driverless technology to mass-produced models and market them. The 2016 Audi A8 will be a milestone if it can be successfully launched with an unmanned driving system.
At this point, we can see that the era of driverless driving is no longer out of reach.
Sebastian Thrun, Google ’s lead developer of driverless cars, mentioned three "90%" when talking about driverless cars: 1. Google driverless cars can reduce traffic accidents 90%; 2. Can reduce commuting time and energy consumption by 90%; 3. Can reduce the number of cars by 90%. If these "90%" can be realized, then the conversion into economic and social costs will be very considerable, and will not be inferior to the economic and social benefits brought by electric vehicles. The point is that driverless cars do n’t need to be as aggressive in infrastructure as electric cars. In addition, it also saves car owners from charging and unnecessary worry about battery stability, making it easier to promote.
With the improvement of driving systems and energy-saving technologies, the development technology of biomass energy and other alternative fuels is also making continuous progress. In addition, the exploration technology such as shale gas / oil is also constantly improving, which will effectively supplement the petroleum resources. To alleviate the panic of excessive consumption of petroleum energy. The development speed of driverless cars has greatly exceeded the industry's predictions, and its industrialization speed may not be later than that of electric cars. Once driverless cars walk in front, the era of electric cars may be subverted before the advent.
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