Three weeks ago, South Carolina stood out as the only state receiving an 'F' for social distancing. Fast forward to today, and Wisconsin joins the list with an 'F.' Texas too earns an 'F,' while Nevada scores a 'C' and Florida an 'F.' Wyoming manages a slightly better 'D+.' Overall, the U.S. averages an 'F' in social distancing.
Unacast has been tracking Americans' cellphone data since March to gauge how well we're adhering to social distancing guidelines. Their algorithm calculates that the U.S. as a whole receives an 'F.' They compare our current mobility patterns to those prior to the pandemic's spread across the U.S., which they set as March 8.
This type of data collection has understandably raised concerns among many. A month ago, we at *The Prepared* sounded the alarm on this issue. Since then, things have shifted significantly. Stay-at-home orders have lifted in numerous states, leading to increased public movement. We're facing another potential spike in infections and fatalities.
Let's be clear—mobile data collection is tricky, especially concerning personal location data. Yet, the time has come to figure out how to utilize this information effectively to keep everyone safe as the pandemic continues. Here, we'll unpack the social distancing scorecard and extract meaningful insights.
### Decoding Social Distancing Metrics
Social distancing isn't just about staying six feet apart; it involves more complex behaviors. To capture these nuances, Unacast employs three key metrics:
1. **Distance Traveled**: How much people are moving around.
2. **Visits to Non-Essential Venues**: Whether folks are avoiding unnecessary outings.
3. **Encounters Density**: The likelihood of coming into contact with others.
Unacast models its assessment based on Italy's experience, where under strict lockdown, mobility dropped by 70 to 80%. For an 'A' rating in the U.S., such a 70% reduction would be required. However, no state has implemented a full lockdown akin to Europe's, so achieving an 'A' was always unlikely.
### Non-Essential Trips: Are We Cutting Back?
Unacast simplifies destinations into essential versus non-essential categories. Essential visits, like grocery shopping or pharmacy runs, don't count against social distancing efforts. Since the pandemic started, each state has defined essential services differently. Nevertheless, here are some examples of non-essential places:
- Restaurants (various types)
- Department and clothing stores
- Jewelry stores
- Electronics shops
- Cinemas and theaters
- Office supplies stores
- Spas and salons
- Gyms and fitness centers
- Car dealerships
- Hotels
- Craft, toy, and hobby stores
Unacast's algorithm first excludes essential locations and compares current mobility to pre-pandemic levels. Currently, the U.S. scores an 'F' in reducing non-essential visits, with a decrease of less than 55% compared to pre-COVID times.
### Mobility Data and Virus Spread
While mobility data doesn't directly predict COVID-19 spread, it provides valuable context on behavioral changes. Therapies show promise, but vaccines remain distant. For now, social distancing remains our primary tool.
An 'F' doesn't spell doom, nor does an 'A' ensure safety. Instead, it reflects shifts in behavior due to prolonged lockdowns. This data helps us understand societal responses to the virus threat.
Unacast anonymizes data similarly to Google and Facebook, ensuring individual privacy. This makes the dashboard a reliable indicator of collective behavior over personal actions.
### Leveraging the Scoreboard
Governments and health officials rely on such data to adjust policies and anticipate outbreaks. As individuals, understanding this data helps us navigate changing regulations affecting loved ones.
The scoreboard becomes most insightful when viewed locally. Imagine living in Stanislaus County, California. You've stayed home since March, and your friends are equally cautious. You might wonder why restrictions persist.
However, checking the scoreboard reveals a different story. Stanislaus County scores an 'F' with 571 cases, whereas neighboring Mariposa County earns a 'B-' with just 15 cases. This discrepancy highlights how personal perceptions can differ from broader realities.
In conclusion, while mobile data raises ethical concerns, it offers critical insights into our collective response to the pandemic.
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