Three weeks ago, South Carolina stood alone as the only state to receive an 'F' for social distancing. Today, Wisconsin joins the list with an 'F.' Texas earns an 'F,' Nevada scores a 'C,' Florida gets an 'F,' and Wyoming barely scrapes by with a 'D+.' On average, the entire United States receives an 'F.'
Since March, Unacast has been tracking Americans' cell phone data to assess our collective social distancing efforts. Their algorithm calculates that, overall, the U.S. deserves an 'F' for social distancing. Unacast compares our current mobility patterns with those prior to the pandemic's spread in the U.S. (before March 8, according to their calculations) to determine how well we're adhering to social distancing guidelines.
This type of data usage has understandably alarmed many people. A month ago, we at *The Prepared* sounded the alarm bells too. Since then, a lot has shifted. Stay-at-home orders have expired in several states, leading to increased movement. We're now facing the possibility of another wave of infections and fatalities.
Let’s be clear—mobile data collection is a delicate matter, especially concerning personal location data. However, the time has come to figure out how to harness this data responsibly to keep everyone safe as the pandemic continues. So, we're here to break down Unacast's social distancing rankings and extract meaningful insights.
### Calculating Social Distancing
We've learned throughout this pandemic that social distancing involves more than just maintaining six feet of distance and continuing with daily routines. To capture various aspects of social distancing, Unacast uses three metrics:
1. **Distance Traveled**: How far people are traveling.
2. **Visits to Non-Essential Venues**: The frequency of visits to places deemed non-essential.
3. **Encounters Density**: The number of close interactions between people.
Unacast models its approach after Italy’s trajectory, where under strict lockdown, people reduced their typical travel by 70 to 80%. For the U.S. to achieve an 'A', we'd need to cut our travel by 70%. This benchmark is nearly impossible to reach without a complete lockdown like those seen in Italy and parts of Europe.
### Reducing Trips to Non-Essential Venues
Unacast simplifies potential destinations into essential versus non-essential categories. The assumption is that trips to essential places, such as pharmacies and grocery stores, should not count against social distancing efforts. During a full lockdown, these necessary trips would still occur.
However, since the pandemic began, each state has handled the definition of "essential" differently. Our data leaders agree on certain non-essential locations, including restaurants, clothing stores, jewelers, consumer electronics stores, cinemas, spas, gyms, car dealerships, hotels, and hobby shops. These venues are excluded from the essential category in Unacast’s analysis.
To calculate non-essential trips, the algorithm first removes visits to essential destinations like grocery stores and pharmacies. It then compares current mobility data to pre-pandemic averages, using the same weekday as a baseline. Right now, the U.S. earns an 'F' in the Reduction in Non-Essential Visits category. Overall, we've decreased non-essential trips by less than 55% compared to pre-pandemic levels.
### Mobility Doesn't Guarantee Virus Control
Data like this doesn't directly predict the spread of COVID-19. While it tracks current movement trends relative to pre-pandemic times, it's crucial because social distancing remains our primary tool for now. Recent developments in therapies are promising, but a vaccine is still far off, and other treatments aren't yet widely available. For now, staying apart is our best defense. Countries like Italy and China needed an 'A' in social distancing to bring their cases under control.
An 'F' from Unacast doesn't automatically signal disaster, nor does an 'A' ensure safety. Instead, the Unacast map reflects behavioral changes in each state or county. It shows how people are responding to prolonged stay-at-home orders, how seriously they view the virus, and their desire to return to normalcy.
The data is especially valuable because it compares regions to their pre-pandemic selves, avoiding comparisons between rural and urban areas. This offers unique insights into how our preparedness aligns with our neighbors’. Unlike social media platforms like Twitter or Facebook, which reflect public sentiment, Unacast provides concrete evidence of actual behavior.
Unacast, like Google and Facebook with their mobility reports, makes significant efforts to anonymize data. You won’t identify specific individuals through this information, which is for the best.
### Leveraging the Social Distance Scoreboard
Government officials and health authorities use data like this to decide on lockdown policies and predict virus spread. By examining it personally, you can understand evolving restrictions affecting your loved ones.
The scoreboard becomes most insightful when viewed locally. Imagine living in Stanislaus County, California. You’ve been strictly socially distancing since March, and so have all your friends. You might wonder why the lockdown persists.
However, checking the social distancing scoreboard reveals otherwise. Stanislaus County ranks poorly with an 'F' and 571 confirmed cases. Yet, neighboring Mariposa County scores a 'B-' with just 15 cases. This discrepancy highlights how personal impressions of community behavior can differ from reality.
Your perception might be shaped by a feedback loop influenced by friends’ actions. A quick glance at the dashboard clarifies that local behavior doesn’t always mirror broader trends.
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