In the recent past, the industry has been paying attention to and discussing the issue of whether NFC payment can continue to develop. Among them, there are more bears and fewer people. Why? Since the launch of the NFC mobile payment service by operators, the number of users has grown slowly. The following is the analysis of the development status and trend of mobile payment for you: the development of everything has its own rules, how will mobile payment develop? If we deeply analyze the current situation of mobile payment development and the environment it faces, then the development trend of mobile payment is also Can be seen.
First, the status quo of mobile payment development
Mobile payment is the darling of the times. Since 2007, it has been the focus of attention in the industry due to its convenience to users. Mobile payment can be divided into remote payment and on-site payment according to the payment scenario.
Remote payment has always been dominated by Internet companies, such as Alipay and Tenpay. However, due to security reasons, many users are still not willing to pay for mobile phones, plus late start, mobile remote payment. The size of the user is not as large as the size of the user on the PC.
On-site payment is mainly led by operators. However, due to various reasons such as immature industrial chain, lack of business model, imperfect acceptance environment, and lack of application, it has been slow to develop for many years.
However, after years of hard work, the three operators of China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom finally launched the mobile payment service on the mobile wallet based on the NFC-SWP solution in April, November and September 2013 respectively. However, in the past year, the number of users is still small, and the largest number of users is China Mobile, and the number of users is less than one million. Among them, it is still related to several major difficulties: the industry chain is not mature, the business model is lacking, the acceptance environment is imperfect, and the application is lacking. However, after one year, the problem of immature industrial chain has improved. From the 1~2 NFC mobile phones to more than 20 NFC mobile phones on the market, the acceptance environment has also been greatly improved. Currently, it can be seen in Beijing from time to time. The POS machine with the “Flash Pay†logo has more than 50 applications, but the business model still has no major breakthrough.
UnionPay and Bank have launched mobile payment products very early, such as the previous mobile phone SMS payment. In the era of mobile phone smartphones, UnionPay began to explore various technical solutions. Although it launched the NFC-SD solution as early as 2010, the financial industry has not been able to dominate mobile payments due to the limitations of the solution and the lack of control over mobile phones. The development of the industry, so UnionPay, the bank began to turn to cooperation with operators, such as UnionPay began to cooperate with China Mobile in 2012, and in June 2013 officially launched the mobile payment products of the NFC-SWP program. However, UnionPay is not limited to a certain mobile payment technology solution, and always tries new mobile payment solutions. For example, in 2014, it is ready to launch NFC full-terminal mobile payment products.
Bus application is a good application for mobile on-site payment, but because the industry is a semi-welfare industry, it is in a strong monopoly position, lacks the innovation power of technology and business, and cooperates with operators or Internet companies in the development of mobile payment. , is a subordinate status.
The above is the general situation of mobile payment. Since remote payment has entered a mature development period, and on-site payment is in its infancy, although the parties have actively explored various programs early on, such as China Mobile has launched 2.4G on-site payment products, but commercial use of on-site payment products. It started from last year. It can be said that last year was the first year of on-site payment development. Therefore, the development trend of mobile payment explored in this paper is mainly based on on-site payment.
Second, the parties to develop mobile payment incentives and adopted programs
Operators are the first to develop mobile payment. They have always regarded mobile payment services as sticky businesses. They hope to bundle mobile phone number users through mobile payment services. Therefore, they adopt SIM card-based mobile payment solutions, and hope to prevent users from switching to the network. On the other hand, I hope to raise the threshold of competition and prevent Internet companies from entering the field of on-site payment.
In the development of mobile payment, UnionPay hopes to increase and control new payment channels, thereby controlling the flow of funds and increasing the income of its transaction share, which belongs to its main business. “Transfer clearing and self-owned brands are related to national security, and the leading power can be ignored.†The president of UnionPay said at the meeting of the 12th birthday of UnionPay in March 2014. It can be seen that it is determined to control and control all payment channels such as mobile payment. Therefore, regardless of any technical solution, NFC-SD card, NFC-SIM card or NFC full-terminal solution, UnionPay hopes to adopt and Development, even the two-dimensional code payment scheme, HCE scheme, it also hopes to adopt and develop.
Banks develop mobile payments, and their motivations are different. The main purpose of banks to develop mobile payments is to increase the amount of bank cards issued, the way they trade, and the volume of transactions. On the one hand, they can increase the amount of debit cards issued for storage. On the other hand, it is possible to increase the amount of credit card issued for lending, both of which are the main business of the bank. Banks are similar to UnionPay, and which ones will be adopted.
Although UnionPay and banks will accept it, they have a tendency to plan. Since UnionPay and banks have adopted the 13.56M standard in the acceptance environment, they have made huge investments. Therefore, UnionPay and banks will mainly adopt NFC solutions (NFC-SD card, NFC-SIM card, NFC full terminal, HCE). The scheme can be adopted to accept the two-dimensional code scheme and reject or even suppress the 2.4G scheme.
The development of mobile payment in the bus industry is to increase the amount of card issuance and transaction volume. Since bus companies, including subway operators, have issued standard IC cards on a large scale, and users have fully accepted this usage habit, mobile payments are equivalent to operators' value-added services for bus companies and subway operators. They are the icing on the cake, they will not fight for the development of mobile payment. As long as it is conducive to the development of its bus business, bus companies, or subway operators will adopt. Similarly, they are also inclined to the program. Since the acceptance environment is already 13.56M, they will adopt many solutions for NFC, and it is unlikely to adopt the 2.4G solution unless the cost of bus POS and gate modification Someone pays for the bill, and they don't use it for the QR code scheme, because this scheme is not suitable for fast and convenient payment scenarios.
Third-party payment companies develop mobile payments, depending on what license they have obtained. If you get a license for mobile phone payments, that is the company's main business, in any case, it must be developed, but also depends on how to develop a third-party payment company. Looking at the shareholding structure of third-party payment companies, there are often big companies behind them. Therefore, according to different backgrounds, third-party payment companies mainly have two major categories, one is a third-party payment company invested by operators. The motivation can refer to the development motivation of operators, and the other is a third-party payment company with the background of Internet companies. These companies develop mobile payment services mainly because they want to seize the huge opportunities brought by mobile payment and develop themselves ( A detailed analysis of this opportunity can be found in the third chapter). Such companies will be the main force for the next step in mobile payment. The main representatives of such companies are Alipay and Tenpay (including WeChat payment).
There is also a force that has to be mentioned here, which is a variety of equipment manufacturers in the industrial chain. The motivation for equipment manufacturers to develop mobile payments is mainly to sell equipment. Most of them are affected by the big environment. The big environment thinks that mobile payment is very promising. If it is related to mobile payment, the big environment will not work, and other equipment will be created. Only a handful of equipment manufacturers can actively push the market forward, such as NXP. However, NXP promotes the development of mobile payment, and hopes to sell a few more chips through the development of mobile payment. Because equipment manufacturers are not directly oriented to users, but to a variety of customers, such as UnionPay, banks, they are greatly affected by customers, and they are attached to customers.
Third, the development of relevant industry situation and its impact on mobile payments
The following is a selection of the communications industry, the financial industry, the bus industry, and the Internet industry, which are closely related to mobile payments, to analyze the impact of the development of these industries on mobile payments. The retail industry, the medical industry and other industries have the demand for payment, which is one of the sources of the development of payment, and is closely related to the financial industry, but the payment is not the main business of these industries, and it will not be analyzed here.
(I) Communication industry: Operators urgently need to transform, but the transformation is weak. Mobile payment is not the main business of operators, and its investment in development is limited.
As the communications industry develops today, operators can only maintain their own competitive advantage by continuously expanding their highways. This continued competitive advantage is also mainly reflected in the competition among operators. The expressway is fast, see who is repairing the highway wide. When the operators spared no effort to repair the expressway, the operator was OTT lost by the Internet company. The mobile operator after OTT has the advantage over the Internet company only in the mobility of its own channel. The result of this is that on the one hand, operators are desperately trying to speed up the repair of highways. 3G has not come out for a few years, 4G has been launched, and 4G has just started, and it has begun research on 5G, otherwise the advantages of carrier mobility are reflected. Not coming out. I thought that 2G lasted for nearly 15 years, and 3G only lasted for 5 years. I wonder if 4G can last for several years? On the other hand, the faster highway repairs have accelerated the demise of the role of operators. Operators must transform themselves. When repairing highways, they must come up with decent business to transform. Otherwise, the wider the road is repaired, the faster others run, and they can only be a road repairer. The profits will become thinner and thinner. In the future, like the water company, the information highway will become a social welfare cause. .
However, if operators want to transform, they must have their own business and products, and must have systems and mechanisms suitable for the development of the business. A former deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology once said that mobile payment is an important step in the transformation of operators. However, a series of recent events have shown that operators are increasingly losing their opportunities for transformation:
First, the SASAC does not allow operators to invest in marketing funds for marketing activities, and only retains the marketing means of credits, which means that operators have squandered their martial arts and entered the era of “naked salesâ€.
2. Second, the decline in operator revenue will inevitably require operators' high-level efforts to improve the ability to maintain and increase the value of state-owned assets. However, the decline in toll revenue is a trend, user saturation is inevitable, and how operators can maintain and increase the value of state-owned assets. ? I thought that I could take the following measures: expand the channels for income increase; cut off non-main business; lay off employees and reduce wages. First, let's look at the feasibility of expanding revenue channels. If operators want to transform, they must take steps to transform, such as vigorously developing new businesses and increasing the means of increasing revenues. However, this step is risky, and the mechanism for assessing and tolerating the risks has not been given at the national level. If the step is taken, it will fall, and who will bear the hat of the state-owned assets? In today's country where there is no relevant mechanism, almost no one dares to take this step, which means that it can only be built up. If an operator is very fortunate, there is a very strong leader, dare to reform and move forward, then this will be the operator's fortunate, the communications industry fortunate! In this case, the development trend of mobile payment may develop towards the third trend (see Chapter 4); if the first road can't go, then the second road means that the operator has started to cut. The business of income, unfortunately, mobile payment, especially on-site payment, is now such a business. If mobile payment does not find a suitable business model, its fate is in jeopardy. Of course, operators will continue to develop mobile payments due to their cooperation with UnionPay and major banks, but the development will not be as strong as before; the third road is the road that no one wants to go, but once profits fall sharply, this It is the way operators have to go.
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